US allies distance themselves from Trump to push for a diplomatic change regarding Gaza

As Canada joins France and the UK in announcing intentions to recognize a Palestinian state, the US remains firmly aligned with Israel. But does Trump have a clear plan for the future of Gaza? 

Courtesy : Reuters

Among the notable statements made about the Middle East, one that hasn't received much attention occurred in Tokyo in November 2023. At a G7 meeting of the world's most influential nations, then-US Secretary of State Antony Blinken outlined several principles for the "day after" the conflict in Gaza. He had just traveled from Tel Aviv, where he met with Israeli leaders following the Hamas attacks on October 7, and amid the Israeli offensive on Gaza. Blinken laid out what effectively served as US prerequisites for Israel's military goals and the broader conflict: the prohibition of forced displacement of Palestinians, no re-occupation of Gaza by Israel after the war, no attempts to blockade Gaza, and a future governance that must be led by Palestinians, specifically involving the internationally recognized Palestinian Authority, with no involvement from Hamas.

These principles aimed to rally support from American allies in Europe and parts of the Arab world, despite resistance from Israel. Few seem to recall Blinken's declaration of these principles, which the Trump administration promptly dismissed. Nonetheless, many US allies still support these ideas. Recently, they gathered at the United Nations in New York for a conference led by France and Saudi Arabia, advocating for a renewed focus on the two-state solution. The event drew attention as both France and the UK committed to recognizing a Palestinian state later this year, contingent upon certain conditions. Canada also expressed its intentions to follow this commitment. However, the Trump administration chose to boycott the meeting, condemning it as anti-Israel. "The United States will not participate in this insult but will continue to lead genuine efforts to achieve a lasting peace," stated US State Department spokesperson Tammy Bruce, labeling the conference a mere "publicity stunt."

This situation has created a significant gap between the US and its long-time allies regarding the future of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. This begs the question: does the Trump administration possess a vision for Gaza's governance and a sustainable peace in the long run? The answer is looking increasingly negative. Earlier this month, when I inquired with Ms. Bruce about the administration’s vision for Gaza’s future governance, aside from the explicit requirement that Hamas must not exist, she indicated that “countries, our partners in the region” are working on “new ideas” as directed by the president. However, when pressed further for details, she replied, “I won’t exactly tell you today.”

No Gaza 'Riviera' - but another plan in limbo  

In February, President Trump announced that the US would take control of the Gaza Strip to create a "Riviera of the Middle East." This plan involved the forced displacement of Palestinians, which the US and Israel later suggested was a move towards "voluntary" emigration. Though the idea was obviously impractical and would breach international law, it seemed to be part of Trump's vision following the war. It likely would have required Israeli military control of Gaza to implement, yet it remained unclear how any ongoing resistance from Hamas or affiliated groups would be addressed.  

Since then, the proposal has been gradually abandoned, at least in its original intention. When asked recently about moving Palestinians, Trump referred to it as "a concept that was really embraced by a lot of people, but also some people didn't like it." This probably pointed to the resistance from Arab nations, including Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states, which Trump visited in May during a lavish trade promotion. The administration now seems focused on more immediate concerns: securing the release of hostages and establishing a ceasefire. When pressed about long-term plans during a White House visit from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Trump deflected to the Israeli leader for a response. This reflects a growing alignment between the Trump administration's approach to Gaza and that of its Israeli counterpart. Netanyahu opposes any role for the Palestinian Authority in Gaza's future governance, where his forces currently occupy about two-thirds of the area. The far-right elements of his coalition demand ongoing military control, the removal of Palestinians, and the expansion of Jewish settlements. Both Israel and the US have sought control over the food supply for Palestinians in militarized zones, while Israel is also providing arms to Palestinian militias that compete with Hamas. The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC), an international body that monitors hunger, reported evidence of widespread starvation, malnutrition, and illness in Gaza. Israel has blamed Hamas and the UN for the dire situation but claims to be facilitating increased aid. Many European nations have reacted with horror. UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy expressed on Wednesday, "We have seen the most horrific scenes. The global community is deeply offended by children being shot and killed as they reach out for aid."  

Starvation seems to be a critical turning point for European countries, serving as a moral catalyst for their varied diplomatic efforts. Domestic pressures in the UK and France have also grown, pushing towards the recognition of a Palestinian state under certain conditions. Gaza is teetering on the edge of chaos without a clear and internationally supported governance plan for the future. From the onset of the conflict, Blinken recognized this danger and engaged with Arab states, pushing for a future framework that would include elements of the Palestinian Authority and security support from Arab nations. He even pressured Israel at least three times to increase aid flowing into Gaza, leveraging the potential restriction of US weapons as a tactic to make his point. In contrast, since January, the Trump administration has not exerted similar pressure, instead ramping up arms supplies to Israel. This has left a significant strategic gap concerning Gaza's long-term direction. Meanwhile, European nations, in collaboration with Gulf Arab countries, have been actively working to address this void.

For them, the lack of effective aid, governance, and a comprehensive peace plan spells worsening conditions on the ground. They have called for immediate aid interventions, support for the Palestinian Authority, and a renewed push towards a two-state solution, even in the absence of US endorsement. This marks a significant departure from the longstanding expectation that any acknowledgment of a Palestinian state would come only after negotiations with Israel. Notably, their joint statement indicated that Saudi Arabia, a pivotal player in the Arab and Muslim world, was joining in the condemnation of Hamas and supporting calls for its disarmament. They are hopeful that this initiative, bolstered by Arab nations, will encourage Trump to re-engage in a more structured diplomatic process. Nevertheless, their upcoming conference in September faces substantial challenges, as the absence of a decisive superpower complicates their efforts.