Thailand-Cambodia agree for 'immediate ceasefire'

Thailand and Cambodia have reached an agreement for an "immediate and unconditional ceasefire" following five days of intense conflict along their border, which resulted in at least 33 fatalities and the displacement of tens of thousands of people.

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"This is a crucial first step towards de-escalation and the restoration of peace and security," stated Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, standing alongside the leaders of Thailand and Cambodia as he announced that military actions would cease at midnight. Initially, Thailand had declined the offer for mediation, but shifted its stance after U.S. President Donald Trump indicated that tariff discussions would remain on hold until the fighting ceased.

Tensions began to escalate in May when a Cambodian soldier was killed in a skirmish related to a decades-old border dispute. In response, Thailand implemented restrictions for its citizens and tourists traveling to Cambodia over land, while Cambodia proceeded to ban certain imports from Thailand, including fruits, power supplies, and internet services. Reports from local Cambodian media indicated that hundreds of thousands of workers had returned from Thailand since the onset of tensions.

The situation worsened last week when a Thai soldier suffered severe injuries from a landmine explosion. Subsequently, Thailand closed several of its border crossings with Cambodia, expelled the Cambodian ambassador, and recalled its own envoy. Gunfire erupted between the two countries early last Thursday, with both parties accusing each other of instigating the conflict. The Thai army reported that many casualties on their side were civilians living in villages impacted by rocket fire. Cambodia reported that 13 individuals had been killed on their side, including eight civilians.

Despite ongoing peace talks in Kuala Lumpur on Monday, shells and rockets continued to fall across both nations. Anwar noted that Malaysia and other members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (#ASEAN) were present to assist in monitoring the ceasefire. For lasting peace, both sides will need to withdraw their heavily reinforced troops from the border and agree to some form of independent oversight to mitigate the risk of further confrontations. Cambodia's Prime Minister, Hun Manet, expressed satisfaction with the meeting, hoping it would bring an immediate end to the hostilities, particularly as Cambodian forces had been under significant pressure from the Thai military. 

Thai Acting Prime Minister Phumtham Wechayachai made a brief statement, affirming the government’s commitment to uphold the ceasefire. The situation at the front lines, accessible only to the two involved armies, remains murky. Thailand asserts that it has gained control over several hills held by Cambodia and is maintaining a relentless artillery bombardment from its significant stockpile of heavy artillery, as well as conducting airstrikes on Cambodian positions. The Thai government has expressed hesitance regarding peace talks, stating that a ceasefire can only occur after dialogue between the two nations, which requires "sincere intentions" from Cambodia—specifically an end to the rocket attacks that have resulted in the deaths of at least 14 Thai civilians.

While Malaysia has facilitated the talks, much of the credit likely goes to Washington, particularly President Trump. His ultimatum on Saturday, in which he threatened to halt all negotiations on reducing US tariffs unless the two countries agreed to cease hostilities, almost certainly pressured them into accepting the ceasefire. Both nations heavily rely on exports to the US and are facing a hefty 36% tariff on their goods without an agreement. This puts their manufacturers at a significant disadvantage compared to neighbors like Vietnam and Indonesia, which have secured deals to lower their tariffs to 20% or below.

However, sustaining the ceasefire will be challenging due to the profound mistrust that has developed between the two armies and the surge of strong nationalist sentiments. Thailand is particularly outraged by Thursday's sudden deployment of multiple rocket launchers, which caused most of the civilian casualties and escalated what had previously been minor skirmishes. Older evacuees near the Thai border, who have memories of the bombardments during the Cambodian Civil War in the 1980s, told the BBC last week that this situation is the worst they have encountered. On Sunday, the Thai military reported that nearly 140,000 civilians had been evacuated to shelters across seven provinces. In Cambodia, where media coverage is tightly controlled, the state-friendly Khmer Times quoted a defense ministry spokesperson stating that about 135,000 individuals along the border were relocated on Sunday. A 75-year-old Cambodian evacuee expressed her fears to the BBC on Monday, saying she still felt unsafe because she could hear Thai drones overhead. She voiced a hopeful wish to "see the war stop this evening."